The
stock analysts and pundits have started to look skeptically at Adobe and its strategy now that its 1970s high school sweetheart,
The Fruit Company, is trying to break up with them.
As far back as 2005,
I felt Adobe was picking a fight they couldn't win by buying Macromedia to own both the PDF and Flash formats. At the time, I felt it would anger the folks in Redmond the way Sun once did with Java. You could also see that far back that the Adobe-Apple relationship was not as stable as years past, and the old partners were slowly becoming rivals in some very expensive and important software - video and high end photography.
If you look at the situation today, Adobe is pinched from all sides. Flash Player on iPad and iPhone is a non-starter, and while exporting Flash projects to iPhone apps will be possible with the forthcoming CS5 versions, it gives Flash developers a subset of the functionality of these devices.
Flash on Windows is tolerated by Microsoft while they are busying trying to sell Silverlight, and even though Redmond fell asleep on the whole rich Internet application idea for about 10 years, now that they woke up they will have the attention of IT managers that already have thousands of Windows machines and wouldn't mind one less plug-in to manage.
Adobe could, of course, release a Flash-based tablet running on Linux, but that would make Apple look visionary for seeing Flash as a rival. They also have no experience selling tangible products and little brand equity beyond Acrobat Reader with casual users, so I wouldn't expect that product would create a very long line at Best Buy.
So where should Adobe go next? Nowhere. Adobe will be just fine if they do what they do best - make tools. Adobe should focus obsessively on making the best creative software tools in the world. In doing so, the lightbulb needs to come on: rich media applications - the stuff we make with Flash - shouldn't need a plug-in 2010.
InDesign doesn't require a plug-in for color printers, yet it dominates the market.
PDF is an open standard, and even though I can click on "Save as PDF," Acrobat and its related servers sell because they go well beyond that feature.
Photoshop exports to dozens of formats for all sorts of media and is the leading creative software in the world because of its flexibility.
Why then, with Flash, should we create animated content, rich forms, and video that can't "Save for Web" without relying on this leftover method from the early days of the web?
Flash as a player made a lot of sense in 1998, and even 2005. But what experience is being provided by Flash right now that can't be replicated with web standards? This is not an HTML 3 world, and the new standards need great tools. Apple is pushing web standards in defense of their position about Flash Player on iPad. In doing so, they are rather openly telling Adobe where a huge hole in the market is - decent tools for making great web standards content.
Flash - the software - should be the very best HTML5/Canvas and JavaScript creation tool in the world. Flex is designed to create applications that look better and run faster than anything the 37Signals devotees and Y Combinator applicants can do with Ruby, but without Flash content so it works in any web browser, tablet, or phone.
I taught Flash for eight years. I based the first decade of my career on Flash, and left IT by creating (Flash 3) animated cartoons and, eventually, Flash websites and eLearning projects. I've been in more discussions about Flash versus web standards than I can count, but the argument that won was, for most of that time, 'I can't create [this animation, that embedded video player, etc] with anything but Flash.'
But the technology landscape is completely different 10 years later. Adobe is still pushing the "author once, publish anywhere" dream that makes a great sales demo but every designer knows never really works for clients. What designers could really use is timeline based animation, reusable components, and embedded video that can publish to a web browser, not an old plug-in that we needed during the Netscape Era. Yes, browsers have their quirks, but if designers think will get to just click a box in Flash for Blackberry, iPhone, and Windows Whatever They Finally Called It Phone, there will be seriously budget issues in design shops happening as a result.
Unless Adobe can look at the situation objectively and prepare for life after Flash Player, they will start to lose ground to faster, more forward thinking startups. Maybe the next Macromedia will be the authors of a standards-based animation tool, or perhaps, a cross platform mobile publishing tool. Of course, like their failed attempt to beat Macromedia Flash with LiveMotion, Adobe could use a simple strategy to compete: if you can't beat them, buy them.
Posted via email from DeSetto.com